National League MVP
The Heavyweight: Shohei Ohtani (-135)
Well, well, well, what do we have here? Shohei Ohtani is a massive favorite. Who would have thought? Seriously, we are once again in an era where we are witnessing the greatest player ever in MLB history. Ohtani is an athletic, two-way player that has revolutionized baseball again. To me, he has led to baseball being more athletic instead of the league where people get hurt running bases. Betting view alone, entering a professional league at -135 roughly as a favorite for MVP is insane demographics. So, let’s talk about options—and although we do not wish injuries upon any player ever, Shohei would have to miss games for anybody else to have an actual chance at winning the NL MVP.
The Value Play: Ronald Acuña Jr. (+1100)
When Shohei was on the Angels, Ronald Acuña Jr. was the MVP front runner. He is that kind of player. When he beat Mookie in 2023 for the MVP award, he had the best stats as a leadoff hitter. Think about that: most hits, home runs, average, steals—he was the best leadoff that ever leadoff. I believe at +1100 odds roughly, he’s more than worth a small bet. Juan Soto just never does it for me; Acuña will hit more than Soto, and Shohei has more pop. Soto would have to hit 40 HRs to have a real chance to beat those two in voting.
The Dark Horse: Paul Skenes (+3500)
The only other vote I would put some cheese on is also a massive dark horse right now, which is shocking. That’s Paul Skenes. Motivated by a World Baseball Classic loss and basically carrying the Pittsburgh Pirates’ playoff hopes to heights they haven’t seen in decades, Paul is poised to destroy the league as the best pitcher in baseball. Shohei skill set, Max Scherzer competitiveness, and the world not only watching but cheering this stud on. At +3500 roughly, it is well worth the small bet.
American League MVP
The King: Aaron Judge (+180)
Aaron Judge may not win much, but what he does win is MVPs because he can absolutely crank the ball better than arguably anybody else in the MLB. Disappointed by the World Baseball Classic finish, with the Yankees stocked up to make a World Series push, all eyes will be on Aaron to see if he can go for a three-peat. That’s right, history is in the making as Judge can do something only Barry Bonds has done. +180 is probably the best odds you will see barring injury or a really disastrous season. Basically, if Judge hits 50+ HRs, he will always win this award.
The Contenders: Bobby Witt Jr. & Nick Kurtz
Cal Raleigh’s record-setting hitting as a catcher last year couldn’t dethrone Judge. Bobby Witt Jr. is a dog and could be a 30 HR, 30+ steals guy while being a Gold Glove defender, but will his best beat Judge’s HR power? Here’s what we do: take HR power for HR power. Put some cheese on Nick Kurtz to win it. Sure, Vlad is more established, but Nick is hitting in a very small ballpark and has a certified bang in his bat. Sure, you can argue Jose Ramirez and Gunnar Henderson could go 30-30 or 40-40, but it will be the power of Kurtz that topples Judge from his HR reign.
Cy Young Predictions
National League
The Alpha: Paul Skenes
Paul freaking Skenes. Take plus value while you can. He proved that you don’t need to have a winning record to win an award if you throw 9 innings of tough ball. He could do both MVP and Cy Young easily this year. If we are really analyzing this, Skenes vs. Ohtani for MVP is not just pitcher vs. pitcher—it’s pitcher vs. pitcher/hitter.
The Competition: Yoshinobu Yamamoto & Cristopher Sanchez
Skenes may face Ohtani in the MVP race, but he also faces his teammate Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who is coming off a World Series MVP performance. Yamamoto was the definition of lights out for the Dodgers last year, putting up multiple complete game performances vs. the best in the World Series. The machine looks to keep rolling. But do I dare say there is a third hog who could outduel these two certified stallions? Cristopher Sanchez just got paid and rightfully so. The lefty has legit, elite stuff, and with Wheeler rehabbing, Sanchez could be the torchbearer for the Phillies. Being pitcher number one will elevate his status while giving him the platform he needs to try to do the impossible by winning the NL Cy Young.
American League
The Two-Hog Race: Tarik Skubal vs. Garrett Crochet
Welcome to the AL Cy Young where we pick up where we left off last year with Tarik Skubal being the favorite, Garrett Crochet the runner-up, and a big gap for anybody else behind them. It’s a two-hog race with history on the line. Skubal has a chance to be the third pitcher to win the Cy Young three times in a row. Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux are the only pitchers to win it three times, as well as four times in a row, which is insane. Skubal can do that; he has the arm, he is at the peak of his career, and the team around him is good enough to support him the whole way.
The Concerns
Crochet might be entering the season in worse standing than last year. Alex Bregman signed a nice deal with the Cubs, and losing a Gold Glove at 3B is never good for a contact pitcher. Caleb Durbin looks more than capable enough to hold his own, but will this affect Crochet significantly? Skubal has an elite changeup that he uses to strike out batters, while Crochet is going to have to rely on strategy more often than not to stack the outs.
Rookie of the Year Sleepers
National League
The Favorites: Nolan Stevens vs. Konnor Griffin
It is kind of weird to see the guy who started for USA in the Gold Medal game of the WBC, Nolan Stevens, not be the clear favorite. Even funnier how the second-place guy, Konnor Griffin, hasn’t even taken AAA swings in his career yet but made the Pirates’ 40-man roster. As much as I can say Nolan is a bona fide prospect who looks to have a solid rookie season practically locked, I could also say MLB loves a storyline. If the 19-year-old Konnor has the skills they say he does, he could snatch this from Nolan. Konnor has shown he can hit with a couple of ding dongs in spring and enough fielding skills to show he’s not a liability.
The Longshots
Sal Stewart for the Reds has some pop and JJ Wetherholt has great potential, but this is a two-man race in my opinion simply because Konnor made the roster. JJ needs to carve out a role while Sal needs to hit HRs early to begin a campaign good enough to topple Nolan.
American League
The Best Bet: Samuel Basallo (+1100)
Absolute free-for-all in the AL as there is no clear favorite. Trey Yesavage has lots of hype, but he should open the year on the IL with a shoulder impingement, which is tough for a pitcher to overcome in a rookie campaign. While Samuel Basallo looked rough but promising during last year’s starts, he capitalized on at-bats during the spring. He is my favorite to win this at roughly +1100. You cannot negate Basallo’s power and the experience he already has.
Keep an Eye on...
Carter Jansen is a hot bet I like because he had a stellar spring and should get starts at catcher with Salvador Perez DH-ing. Munetaka Murakami of the White Sox should pop around 20-30 home runs, but that’s a big unknown as this will be his first year in the US. Chase DeLauter for the Guardians could be a 20 HR/20 SB guy and looks to make the roster. Take the value on Basallo while you can.
