Week 11 Matchups

The NFL can be so tricky at times. When you have eleven guys on each side of the ball, there are so many different variables that can change the outcome. Even bad teams can look solid every once in awhile. 

Now even though we are on a little cold streak now, we aren’t gonna stop pushing for winners. We speak all the time about the long game of betting. It’s a roller coaster of emotions that makes the thrill feel so fun. Now we also have to make sure we stick to some key rules. 

One rule I try to stick by, is not to spread myself too thin. It’s tricky to hit a bet. So why out money on 7-10 games? Chances aren’t in your favor. So let’s keep to just some winners. There are some quality games to pick from. TB vs LA should be good but I don’t know which team is gonna show up for both sides. I like the Jags to cover that giant spread but that takes stones to bet against the undefeated team. I think the Texans can beat the Patriots but I just can’t that team right. So here are my favorite locks for this week. Let’s put a unit and a half or two on each. See you at the cashier!

Cincinnati Bengals 2-6-1 @ The Washington Football Team 2-7 (-1.5)

Now I know this Cincinnati team looked bad last week, but I still believe that they are better than their record. As a team, they still rushed for 139 yards. Burrows couldn’t get comfortable because that O-Line is trash. But when he could get the ball out, Higgins looked great. I think he is locked in as the number one target for Burrows. Joe Mixon however will be out for this game. This foot sprain might be something a lot worse than they originally thought. They didn’t automatically put him on the three week IL but here we are, three weeks later and he hasn’t put in any work at practice. Gio is nice and he has a role, but this offense is clicking a lot better when Mixon is healthy.

It pains me to write “The Washington Football Team.” It just feels so weird. But seeing Alex Smith do pretty well makes up for it. It’s pretty much unanimous that he will win Comeback Player of the year. That gruesome injury and then the infection that almost took his leg has strengthened his mind. That second half last week was a glimpse of a more comfortable Smith. This team raddled off three straight scoring drives in that halftime put themselves in a position to win that game. Two of those drives were eleven plays a piece. The offense has the talent to be good as well. Terry is a top ten receiver this year. Gibson has the game breaking ability. Hell even J.D. Mckissick has been a locked in target for Smith. We have seen an offense thrive under Alex Smith in the past. This offensive line ranks 30th in sacks per game. Some that falls on the fact that Haskins couldn’t get rid of the ball to save his life. But they need to keep Smith upright. If he can have the confidence and know that he is protected, look out. 

I know it’s a game featuring two losing teams but there is a lot to like about them offensively. I think that 47 O/U is low. I’m for sure gonna smash that. Both defenses have shown that they can give up points in bunches. Both offenses can catch fire at any given point. We should keep an eye on this Washington pass rush against the Bengals line. They have some killers that can get after the QB. Ultimately I find that as the factor that gives Washington the win. Burrows goes down four times and the Football Team wins late. -1.5

Miami Dolphins 6-3 (-4) @ Denver Broncos 3-6

I guess this is where I put some respect on the Dolphins. They are still a top five team in opponents points against. Fourth in turnover margin. Top ten in points per game. A rookie quarterback who can do nothing and then ball out, but either way they win. They have a bunch of people that make you scratch your head at the skills positions. Who is Salvon Ahmed? What about Jakeem Grant? It’s not exactly a team that jumps off the page talent wise but you can speak enough about how good the coaching is down there. That defense is making key plays each and every game to put the offense in plus positioning in the field. They are heading to the cold mountains of Colorado which scares me. But this team isn’t just thankful they win. They want the division title. This team has been close before but something feels weirdly special about this team. They are coming in on a five game win streak that has wins against the Cardinals, Rams and 49ers, “The toughest division in football.”

This has been an extremely long season for Broncos fans from the jump. Multiple injuries to key players what feels like every week since training camp. Now Drew Lock is dealing with sore ribs and may miss this game.  So it could be the Brett Rypien show, feel inspired? He can’t be worse than what we saw Lock do last week. I mean four interceptions? Against a defense in LV that doesn’t exactly have a knack for being unstoppable. The line has not looked good these past few weeks either. No running back over 50 yards the past two weeks and it’s a surprise Gordon got 46 last week honestly. The defense has also given up 30+ points the past five weeks. So the offense isn’t clicking, the starting quarterback is healthy, the defense has look atrocious. I’m just sitting here wondering why the spread just four points. 

Miami is not only 4-1 in their last five but they are 5-0 ATS. The Dolphins only have one loss on the road but that was week one. We can’t speak enough to the coaching getting these guys ready for every game. The Dolphins also own the series between these two teams 12-6-1. To me this is the most no brainer matchup of the week. Go Phins and go Under. -4

Green Bay Packers 7-2 @ Indianapolis Colts 6-3(-1.5)

I’m curious as to how, arguably the best team in the NFC is a dog to the Colts? I can admit, the Packers could have the worst run defense in the league. Maybe not the worst but it’s definitely the most obvious hole for this team, and ultimately will be their demise in the playoffs if things can’t change. Thankfully for Packers fans, they are getting the best player on their defense back Jaire Alexander, after missing a week due to the concussion protocol. The showtime though, is Aaron Rodgers! He looks as good as ever honestly. He has shown a good connection build with MVS, Devantae Adams is roasting sorry ass cornerbacks week in and week out, and now he gets Allen Lazard back. We are also seeing him play mistake free basically. He has the same amount of interceptions as, Dak,Trubisky,Alex Smith,Andy Dalton and Dwayne Haskins. Notice anything similar? Dak has the most games played in that group with just five. Rodgers looks locked in and that should scare some teams in the NFL. The line has been doing a stellar job protecting him as well. Besides a hiccup against the Bucs, this team has looked like a winner. So why the shade from Vegas?

It’s probably because Indy is coming off a huge divisional win last week against Tennessee. Rivers went in, threw for 300 and didn’t turn the ball over. For some reason Hines was the feature back, but it worked. His 115 total years were a career high. He fits really well for what Rivers likes to do with the ball. The offense has looked good when Hines has had a role. Their first round rookie Michael Pittman has looked solid since coming back from injury, Phillip sees it because Pittman has led the team in targets the past two weeks. Now this will be a different defense than last week. The Packers held opponents to under 170 yards two of the past three weeks. This Indy defense is legit as well though. I mean Tannehill couldn’t do anything all game. Henry got his but they seemed ok with that. The one thing I want to see in order to believe, Taylor to do well this game. I think this team really, really, really wants to have a three down back. It makes the offense more fluid. Allows Rivers to do more work at the line, but Taylor hasn’t looked good at all. He struggles in the red zone. Hasn’t had the “breakout game” yet that some of his other rookie mates have. He is also behind the best offensive line in the league. The holes are there, Hines found them, Wilkins found them. Taylor has the pedigree and talent. The matchup is there for him to extremely well. 

No I know the Colts have put up 30+ points three out of the last four weeks. I know the defense has also looked championship caliber at times. The Colts have a great coaching staff. Rivers is just getting more and more comfortable in the offense. But I can’t go against my man Rodgers here. On the road, the Packers have scored 30+ points and won in four out of five games. Aaron Jones should be back to full health and I expect him to be utilized this week. I think Adams gets two touchdowns as the Packers win this game. +1.5