NFL Week 11 Betting Predictions
The Washington Football team beat Tom Brady last week, the Rams offense looked lost, and the Browns are still the Browns. The NFL is in full swing and the annual “any team can win on any given Sunday” crowd now has some ammo. After the 0-3 showing last week, I thought I would take the articles into a different direction. Here are may favorite picks on EVERY SINGLE GAME ON THE SLATE!! This was a lot of fun and I hope you like it.
New England Patriots (-7) @ Atlanta falcons
The New England Patriots are coming off arguably their best win on the year – Waxing the Browns 45-7, and silencing any doubters in their belief that they are a playoff team. The Patriots are 5-1 in their last 6, and Mac Jones has a TD/Int of 9/4. Not too Shabby for a rookie against Dallas, LAC, CAR, and CLE. Not to mention they are 4-1 in their last 5 ATS, so why should that stop against ATL? They just got rick-rolled by Dallas, and essentially gave Bill Belichick the blue print to whoop up on them. I’m not predicting anything serious, but 30-17 NE doesn’t sound unreasonable. Give me the Patriots (-7).
Detroit Lions @ Cleveland Browns (-10)
Speaking of the Browns, they made me look like a fool for finally believing in them. Nick Chubb is almost for certain coming back, and Baker Mayfield stated that he felt “great” the day after the game. They are completely embarrassed after what transpired on Sunday. They are playing an opponent who had a moral victory I guess you could say, with a tie against the Steelers. Jared Goff looked atrocious because of an “oblique injury” obtained in the first quarter of last weeks game. I don’t know how much more successful this team will look running the ball against Cleveland. Once Pittsburgh adjusted, the offense took a huge nose dive. The -10 is a lot of points. The Lions came so close to finally establishing a win, but the Steelers ran for 145 yards and they are a mid tier run attack. Cleveland should be in one of those games where they go up early and coast, let the lions come back last minute but score a late TD. Browns -10
San Franciso 49ers (-6.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
This is one of those weirder games on paper to me. San Francisco looked absolutely stellar Monday night. They came out ready to handle their divisional rival in a primetime and emotional game. This looks on paper like one of those games where the 49ers come out flat at the beginning and play some catchup after establishing a successful run scheme. Jacksonville has looked atrocious over these past couple weeks. One thing that interests me, though, is the over for the Jags is 3-1. Teams come out and jump early, take advantage and ultimately cover their team total early. Jags get a little help from soft defenses and cover late, yet, the 49ers are on a streak of 4 straight unders. I don’t see why it doesn’t go 5 in a row. U/ 45.5.
Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills (7.5)
So the Colts played solid, consistent ball to move from the “best-worst team in the league,” to a “Good-average team” category. The Colts are 4-1 in their last five, but showed a lot of promise in that loss to the Titans. Carson Wentz has looked decent, but the real star is Johnathan Taylor. His 937 rushing yards is tied-1st in the league with Derrick Henry. Buffalo has sadly been ranked 3rd against the run their last three, so this will be a real test to the offensive line of Indianapolis. Buffalo has been a favorite in their last four games despite splitting those four games 2-2 against the spread. The trend leans towards a loss against the spread, and I’m gonna go against the public. I think the Colts keep this game close, and might even win this one. Colts +7.5
Miami Dolphins (-3.5) @ NY Jets
So could this be the best/worst game on the slate? I mean we have Tua vs Joe Flacco, how is that not going to shape up into an entertaining matchup? No, I understand the public’s skepticism, and I think the Dolphins’ success will solely lie on how Tua can deal with his injury. I say that because Tua hasn’t thrown a touchdown since late October, so maybe he is due for a big game? The NY Jets are a perfect opponent for your offense to play against. The Jets have given up 30+points in each of their last 4 games. At times, this year, the Dolphins have looked somewhat competent on offense. They are also basking in the high of a two game win streak. The Jets seem desperate with starting Flacco, so it’s hard to bet on a Miami team coming into a cold weather stadium like New York. Also, nothing about this Jets team should inspire you. Miami ML -174
Washington Football Team @ Carolina Panthers (-3)
Bravo to anyone reading this that had the stones to bet WFT ML last week agains the Buccaneers. Even though that miracle happened, all of the talk is focused on the return of Cam Newton to the starting line up of the Carolina Panthers. This line at -3 screams a trap. It’s just low enough to where a bettor might think it’s a steal, yet Ron Rivera has the book on how to stop Cam Newton. Yes, it was great to see Cam last week get two touchdowns, and I bet the extra adrenaline helped from it being his first game back. Washington has improved defensively over their last there last three. In their first 5 games, though, they allowed on average 37.4 PPG, and now we are looking at just 20 PPG over their last three. The WFT came into this year with a preseason top-10 grade and maybe things are turning around. CMC also tweaked his hamstring last week in just the first half. If he isn’t 100%, I don’t think the Panthers will be able to win this game. I’m taking WFT +3, and WFT to win this game.
Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) @ Chicago Bears
On a scale of 1-10, how pissed do you think Lamar is about their performance last Thursday? The Baltimore offense couldn’t muster a drive of longer than 47 yards until five minutes into the fourth quarter. The Dolphins got to Lamar four times, and I believe it’s totally possible for Quinn to get four himself Sunday. Thankfully, for Baltimore, the Bears have been allowing 144.0 rushing yards over their last three. Despite the lackluster showing in Miami, the Ravens are still the best rushing team in the league. This seems more of a get right game for Baltimore, who may of just made the mistake of looking passed last week’s Dolphins squad. Ravens -4.5
New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles (-2)
I should denounce early on that I am a guy that has zero faith in Jalen Hurts. I know certain stats lean into him being a QB on the cusp, but there are just as many pointing to his eventual demise as well. I choose the latter. New Orleans is coming into this game top 10 in takeaways, points allowed, and yards allowed. New Orleans has an ability to cause pressure on the QB. A smart and discipline team can contain Hurts, maintain coverage, and force bad decision making. New Orleans is an extremely well coached team, that has enough talent at the key positions to take this advantage. Trevor hasn’t been terrible, and they will be getting Kamara back so that has to shed some hope on the Saints. Philadelphia is leading the league by a large margin over their last three, averaging over 200 YPG, and the Saints have been the best in defending the run, averaging 57.0 RYPG over their last three. I’m leaning more towards a proven Saints defense to win this battle and force Hurts into beating them. Saints +2, and sprinkle Saints ML +110 on a parlay.
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (-10)
Tennessee was on a four-game heater ATS before a close game to NO last week. Losing Henry was supposed to make this team take a step back, but it’s almost like nothing has changed. Tennessee is ranked 5th in ppg over their last three, and completely control the #1 spot in the AFC. The Texans are 2-3 when getting 10 points, and I think that’s because they’re a bad team. Let’s just roll with the team that’s supposed to wax, and hope this isn’t the upset cover of the week. Titans -10
Green Bay Packers (-1.5) @ Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are miraculously keeping every game close – good and bad. After the embarrassing loss to the Cowboys, they almost beat the Ravens, and then took down the Chargers. They are also 4-1 in games where they come in as an underdog. But – Rodgers is back, baby! Aaron didn’t look good against Seattle, though, but it was his first game back after contracting covid, while also getting slammed by the media. Let’s also not forget it was the first snow game of the season. Rodgers has 50 touchdowns to just 7 interceptions against Minnesota during his long career. The defense looks great in GB and this is arguably their best shot to make that Super Bowl push. Rodgers rights the ship and covers the -1.5.
Cincinnati Bengals (-1) @ Las Vegas Raiders
I pondered on this game the most. With the closest spread on the schedule, both franchises technically have a lot to lose. Both teams play in competitive divisions, both have had some really bad luck over the last couple weeks, and both seemingly are coming into this matchup, exceeding preseason expectations. So who is the more for real franchise. Carr has been able to manage this season to the best of his abilities, despite everything. This is arguably his best effort since his almost MVP year in 2016. Burrow looks promising and getting drafting Chase has only increased his growth. I think these boys in Cincy are good. Carr is good, too, but something has got to give. I think Cincy wins this game, but I don’t say that with much confidence. Cincinnati-1, and give me the under.
Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) @ Seattle Seahawks
We do have a Kyler Murray sighting at practice, so there is room for optimism. Now D-Hop is sadly logging another week full of DNPs. With that said, can a hobbled Kyler Murray lead the Cardinals over a division rival in Seattle? Arizona is 1-2 as a favorite, as of late, covering the spread. Russ looked suspect in his first game back, but we can chalk that up to a lot of things. This is a relatively even game with all of these injuries piling up. Arizona is still a middling team against the pass, and with Carson looking to miss another week, Russ will have to do it all. Give me a get right game for Russel and getting the Seahawks back on track. If they lose this game, their playoff hopes look slim in a tough NFC. Seattle +1.5, and Seahawks to win.
Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)
ESPN is filling my feed with Patrick Mahomes highlights so that must mean the CHIEFS ARE BACK!! Or are they? The Chiefs put together a 41 point performance on the road to the Raiders. The whole world would tell you that this is the new normal, but I’m here to say – maybe! The Raiders had zero answers for Tyreek Hill, and that seemed to be the best way for KC to really get things going. Hill opens up the entirety of the field with his speed. Those Cowboys are coming in off their best game of the season, though. The defense took the loss to Denver personally and looked for the ball with ferocity. Forcing three picks and sacking the Falcons twice. Dak looked comfortable again, and the team was well balanced. We are talking about an O/U of 56, and I don’t think that’s high enough. KC has looked okay defensively as of late, but this will be a true test. The amount of capable pass catchers the Cowboys have will really test a weaker core of DBs in Kansas City. This will be a shootout, but I’m taking the underdog here to cover the +2.5 and win this game outright.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ LA Chargers (-6.5)
With a 6.5 point line, who do the oddsmakers think is playing for the Burgh? I mean, if it’s Mason Rudolph I totally understand. He underwhelmed tremendously against a lowly Lions team, and couldn’t muster enough of a drive to get a field goal late. If it’s Big Ben, then who knows what will happen. We just saw Aaron Rodgers come back from covid and look out of sorts. Ben hasn’t been all that great so anything else hindering him could spell doom for this squad. LA, on the other hand, has been on this little downward spiral. Losing three of their last four, and not really looking great defensively in the process. They have given up 27+ points during that time span as well. Now, 27 points is a dream scenario for this Pittsburgh team who is 26th in PPG. However, I do think this defense keeps it close. I don’t see a world where LA loses this game but the line moving from 3.5 to 6.5 makes it too rich for my blood. Pittsburgh covers the +6.5
New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10.5)
New York is on three-game heater against the spread, but going into Tampa on primetime spells for bad things. New York isn’t new to this scenario, as they had to go to KC once in primetime, almost winning that game. This could be that same scenario, but this Tampa team is built different at home. Averaging a whopping 40.5 ppg, and Tom Brady throwing 4-5 touchdowns in each contest, it’s hard to see a world where they don’t dominate the game. Arguably his least favorite team he has every played against, Tom Brady will go off against New York. Tom and the Buccaneers have dropped their last two games on the road, so they will be coming in pissed. They will be trying to show the world they are legit and, most importantly, they need this win for their playoff hopes. Seeding is so important and they’re great at home. It’s imperative for them to secure home field advantage. Bucs cover the -10.5
