NFL Week 10 Projections: Thursday Night Football

Indianapolis Colts 5-3 @ Tennessee Titans 6-2 (-2)

                 Another solid ass Thursday night matchup. Last week we got to see Rodgers absolutely ball out and cover our bet. Now this week we have a tough divisional matchup that will have playoff seeding impact. Plus these guys play again in two weeks, so you want the momentum here. These teams also counter each other extremely well across the board. The star power out there could make this a possible game of the week, and I got a strong feeling about this winner!

             You aren’t going to win many games when you’re going 2-12 on third down. The Colts also couldn’t put any points on the board past the first half. Rivers has also struggled this season, against good teams. Yeah he looks solid against the likes of Detroit, Cincinnati, Jets and the Jaguars. But Cleveland, Baltimore and Chicago all have the talent to match up with the Colts. It seems to me that this team can be a good regular season team, but I don’t expect a long run. We will learn a lot the second half of the season. Two games against the Texans and Titans, plus you have Pittsburgh, Packers and the Raiders. They actually have the fifth toughest remaining schedule in the league. So should we honestly believe in these guys? Who is the leading running back? We all thought once Mack went down, Taylor was gonna just ball the hell out. But he is averaging just a mere 52 Y/G. As a team, they are only getting 3.7 Y/A and that’s not what you expected from the preseason best O-line. If this team wants to go far, they need to get this run game going. Rivers can’t be relied on to throw 30-40 times a game. He is a game manager at this point. Let him pick and choose his moments against zone and put together long drives. And cashing in on these drives is crucial. They are in the bottom ten in td red zone efficiency. They have a juicy match up here. Foles, for crying out loud, threw for 335 yards and for the first time this year, no picks. If Rivers can show me something here, I’ll think about being bought in. If he can do it next week against the Packers, I’ll believe. 

              I’m starting to believe in this Titans team. The offense looks solid, at times, but as the year continues, they will only get better. They are fourth in TD/G and I can see them finishing top three. Tannehill is showing again that he can deal in this league. Despite being 20th in passing yards per game, he is 4th in passing touchdowns per game. In just 6/8 games, he has a touchdown of 25+ yards. A.J. Brown is legit. In a game where Ryan could only get 158 yards, he got 101 of them. He has also scored in every game but one. I really don’t know if it is the system, or the talent, but it seems like a perfect combination. And we all know Henry is a tank, but so far he has topped 90 or more yards only half the time. And the Colts come in with the third best rushing defense. 

               These two teams matchup really well in my opinion. The Henry vs the vaunted rushing defense, can Tannehill beat the 5th best defense against passing touchdowns, and of course can Rivers actually be good. With a line of just -2, it’s kind of pick your favorite. And last week we learned that the Titans were just 2-5 ATS but they covered last week, by a half point, and that doesn’t exactly give you comfort. Plus the Colts defense held the best rushing team in the league to just 2.9 yards a carry. I know Henry can pop off, but I think the Colts are going to have a solid game plan. Rivers should be able to move the ball, but I think it comes down to turnovers. The Titans lead the league with a +10 turnover differential. It’s helped them secure key victories and mount good comebacks. I can see Rivers having multiple late turnovers. I want the Titans here to secure the AFC South. It’s an early, must win game. I think the Titans are the better team, and cover the -2.