Well I don’t think we can have a worse week. Week nine took a toll on not only my betting account but my life has been shortened because of all the stress. You see a Bills team absolutely dominate a poor ass defense in Seattle. The Ravens smoked Rivers all game. The Dolphins are actually legit. The Bears can honestly just kiss my ass and I can’t believe the Saints man handled the Bucs the way they did. It was a dominant showing right off the top.
Week ten doesn’t have a lot of high key matchups like last, but there are still some to keep an eye on. Like that Bucs vs Panthers game. I normally can have a decent sense on the team in Carolina but after that horrible loss, I don’t know which team will show up. If Tampa can get some run game going, then they can win easy. But we saw that a balanced offense is the best offense on Sunday night.
I think there a couple games out there that look like trap games. Teams that may have bad records but their situation isn’t terrible. Maybe some teams come off the bye a little slow. Maybe some rally behind a new QB? Maybe some games don’t even play? No I’m kidding, the NFL isn’t showing signs of canceling games but they do have a plan in place now. If any games are canceled, it will be a 16 team playoff scenario. I’m all for it, but I’m a sicko. I can’t have enough football.
With so few big games on the docket, I chose to keep it small and go with my favorites. You know, keep the money in the right spots and not spread ourselves too thin. Now let’s go get this bag!
Houston Texans 2-6 @ Cleveland Browns 5-3 (-3)
So Romeo Crennel has led this team to 2-2 but you could argue that they had a bad beat against the Titans. If they don’t allow that Henry 94 yard TD then who knows what could of happened but they are better. Deshaun Watson has taken the lead and thriving. His first half of the season with Bill he averaged, 273 yards and a total 6 touchdowns with three interceptions. But with Crennel, 321 yards, 11 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions. One of the reasons I think he is more successful is the fact that he is rushing the ball. He has topped 25 or more yards each of these last four games, where as he did it once in the first four. Your seeing Cooks get more acclimated to the offense, Fuller is healthy, and the running game has been serviceable. Sadly David Johnson will miss this game with a concussion. That could lead to more of a “run through the air” approach. And wouldn’t you know it, the Browns are in the bottom ten in pass defense. The Browns also aren’t a team who generates a ton of pressure. Myles Garret is going to get his every once in a while but I don’t see a lot coming from other places. This should help one of the most sacked quarterbacks in the game stay in rhythm.
Cleveland is coming off a bye week with some things to prove to the league. In all of their losses this season, they failed to score double digits. They looked absolutely awful. But then we see games like the ones against Dallas and Indianapolis, that lead us to believe that maybe there is something with this team. They will be getting arguably their best player back, Nick Chubb this week. The offense wants to lean on the run and just let Baker just pick his spots. They rank eighth in rushing attempts and fifth in yards. I also expect Baker to be better. I think Baker can be serviceable but not leaned on if that makes sense. When he has the ability to just spread the ball around, and just find the best read, he can be solid. But watching him force balls downfield to a double covered OBJ can be painful. Look for Jarvis to step up from the slot, Hooper is coming off the IL from an appendectomy. So the offense is starting to get healthy at a key time. Plus this matchup with a “Swiss cheese” like defense in Houston, I see potential for a shootout.
This game should be a barn burner honestly. A 50.5 O/U seems a little low for me. I’m gonna smash that for sure. I see either team leading a drive late to win the game. It’s going to be close throughout. Houston ranks dead last against the run. I think we will see chunk runs a plenty with Deshaun making big plays for Houston. I know I also said that Cleveland is better than we all thought, and maybe I should stop disrespecting them. But here I’m going to take Houston to travel to Cleveland and steal this game. Houston +3
Pittsburgh Steelers 8-0 (-7) @ Cincinnati Bengals 2-5-1
When I first saw this line, I thought that it was an easy hammer on Pittsburgh. But then you see that the Bengals have only lost by seven or more points once. So can the Steelers come through? Chances are we will get Ben on the field even though I say rest him. Conner had some rest last week so hopefully he is healthy and ready to take advantage of the 29th ranked rush defense. I don’t think anyone on the Bengals can matchup with any of the wide outs for Pittsburgh. So just like last week, it should be an easy win. But last week wasn’t easy. We saw that this offense needs a run game to be fully successful. The 46 yards last week were a season low. Ben was able to shoulder the weight and lead this team on a 24-6 run from the end of the first half. The biggest thing I saw was the fact that Ben was able to avoid a sack. His knees took some damage but it almost forced him to get the ball out quicker. Your seeing this trust between QB and WR build each and every game. Balls are out of his hands before receivers are out of their routes. With zero training camp, I’m honestly surprised.
Cincinnati should be a tad thrilled with how this season is going. Mostly all of their losses are single digits, Burrows is top ten in passing yards, Tee Higgins looks primed to be the outside threat to replace Green and they are still in shape for a top ten pick. Joe needs a better line to succeed. He is still third in most sacked, yet he is still producing. Imagine how good this kid will be with an extra second or two in the pocket. He also has fewer interceptions than Wilson, Murray and Brady on the year. That’s a stat to be proud of if you ask me. This defense needs some help in the offseason as well. They are essentially bottom ten in every single category and even though Burrows has been careful with the ball, the team still has a negative turnover margin. It’s hard to win games when you can’t stop anyone or force any turnovers. There is a lot to like about this team, but just not right now.
Pittsburgh should win this easily. But all Steelers fans know that they always play to their competition. Texans, Eagles and the Cowboys made this team sweat all game. I don’t see this being a blowout by any means. But I do see this offense clicking. They have something to prove to the world, that they are legit and last week was a fluke. But still if I have to pick a spread winner, Bengals +7. And I would wait because I think that line moves to 8 or nine points.
Seattle Seahawks 6-2 @ LA Rams 5-3 (-1.5)
My first thought when I saw this game was, how the hell is LA the favorite?! And I’m not the only one, according to The Action Network, 65% of the public is on the Seahawks this week. That’s a decently high number for what is projected a close matchup. But that’s what you get when you have Russel back there throwing dimes. But we saw that this team can only go as far as their defense will let them. They allowed Josh Allen to sit back and pick them apart each and every drive it seemed. They have allowed three quarterbacks throw for 400+. Cam was three yards short so basically four. Now Goff hasn’t looked great this season but this could be a get right game. Jamal Adams is back and should bring something to this secondary but I think only the lord could save this unit. Seattle is 52 yards worse then second to last place in passing yards allowed. 30th In points allowed, but at least they are fourth in rushing yards allowed. But when I can move the ball through the air so easily, why run? And trust me when I say McVay is saying the same thing.
I’m debating it but the Rams may be my most disappointing team this year. Maybe that is more to my belief in this team and them not hitting the marks I thought. Defensively they are second in yards allowed and points allowed. The line is getting pressure, coming in fifth on the year in sacks. But the offense just isn’t clicking like we have seen in years past. Goff is 17th in passing touchdowns, 11th in yards, and a dreadful 24th in completion percentage. All of that despite being one of the fewest sacked quarterbacks in the league. He got PAID not too long ago and has not lived up to that contract. One could argue that he has a top 5 recovering corps to work with. He also has an offensive minded coach who has shown that he is a solid play caller. The running game is serviceable with three guys who can get the job done. McVay has come out and said he wants a running back by committee approach. Can Goff shine in this tough divisional matchup? One that could prove to who really wins the division.
The Rams have eight games remaining and five of them are against the NFC West. We all can argue but I think it’s the toughest division in football. Maybe this can expose this team as just an average group. Or maybe they take this and run with it, and move up the rankings. Right now, the Rams seem like a solid team that won’t win in the playoffs. If Goff can come out and ball against an easy matchup, then maybe. But this Seahawks team will score. I’m scared if LA can keep up if it’s a shootout. This is a stay away game for me but I think I’ll go with the Rams at home. Any team that has a capable offense has proven too tough for that Seattle defense. La -1.5.
Buffalo Bills 7-2 @ Arizona Cardinals 5-3 (EVEN)
Allen told the league to put some damn respect on his name. Everyone including me, doubted that he was truly taking the turn to be an elite passer. But a game against the worst passing defense can help anyone get on track. He is just 500 away from tying his career high for yards in a season, just one touchdown away as well. Your also seeing him tuck and run it less. His ability to keep the ball alive with his athleticism paired with a decent downfield vision can be a future problem for defenses. You have to honor his mobility but he is showing that at times, he can take advantage of a great matchup. The run game is till nonexistent. Moss led the team last week with just 18 yards, gross. Also take into consideration that it was 24-7 at one point in this game. So the game script was there but the trust just isn’t. This will be continue to be a problem for this team. The offensive line hasn’t been great, so there is a possibility for improvement. Overall I think it’s clear that this Buffalo team is legit. And they will only get better. But can they pull off another win against the NFC West? 2-0 against that division tells me that just maybe they have their number.
Arizona, how could you? I made you my favorite bet last week and you choked it away to a rookie QB. Thanks to multiple long drives, they could only get two cracks in the fourth quarter. A failed 4th and 1, and a missed field goal to really kick this team right in the nuts. But that doesn’t mean that they are all of a sudden a bad team. Kyler should honestly win the MVP if you ask me. First look at his rushing numbers. He still leads the league with a 7.1 YPC. He is also on pace for over a thousand yards and get this, 16 touchdowns. Good lord. Then you factor in that he is still going to throw for over 4000 yards and 32 passing touchdowns. I’m just his second year in the league. Hopkins had a quiet game last week but he should continue to ball out. The defense needs work but we all kind of knew that with this team preseason. No one saw this growth coming from Kyler this fast. We have also seen this year that Buffalo has struggled to defend athletic quarterbacks. Tannehill and Cam put in solid work on the ground, Mahomes even had ten rushing attempts. If Buffalo can’t find a quality spy for Kyler, then this could be a long one for them Bills.
I can say that I may have been a little lower on Buffalo than I should of been. This is still a two loss team who leads their division. They are led by one of the most underrated coaches in the game, a quarterback who has shown the ability to elevate, and a defense who is still just getting healthy. And I’m not gonna lie, I initially thought Arizona was a lock for this. But the more I dig and think, Buffalo just seems like it’s ready for the moment. They showed me last week that the talent is there. Diggs has proven to be just as important as Hopkins. Cole Beasley is eating up the middle, and they are top five in red zone touchdown percentage. So they can move the ball and score once they are close? Sounds like a winner to me. Buffalo in a close one.