Brock & Shane’s NFL Best Bets – Week 13

Picks by Brock Hartley & Shane Ierardi

At Rahl Bets we’re all about providing you betting advice in hopes that you win some money along with us! However, we understand that with the NFL’s strict blackout rules, you may not be able to watch the games that we post on Sunday mornings – and let’s be honest, watching the games and rooting for your bets is half the fun. So, in order to reach a wider audience Shane & I are giving you our best bets for every game on the Sunday slate, as well as for Monday Night Football! As you probably could have guessed, we have a wide range of bet types. Below you will find bets on spreads, the moneyline, totals, team totals, and even some player props! We have arrived at these decisions from researching historical trends, team statistics, and from some straight up situational spots as well. We hope you have an entertaining & profitable NFL weekend!

– Brock Hartley

PITTSBURGH STEELERS at ATLANTA FALCONS

Best Bet: Steelers +1 -110

Since Mike Tomlin was hired as head coach in 2007, no team has cashed more underdog spreads than the Pittsburgh Steelers. Easy call here, but keep in mind that this is a trend that has been profitable over the long term. This isn’t the type of pick that you want to bet the house on. You want to bet steady to see that ROI grow over time. 

–BH

GREEN BAY PACKERS at CHICAGO BEARS

Best Bet: David Montgomery 50+ yards rush -250

The Packers defense are bottom 3 in the NFL against the rush and the Bears will be rushing the ball with or without Fields in the game. Expect Montgomery to get around 15 touches and a couple of lanes behind a surging Bears team. 

–SI

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at DETROIT LIONS

Best Bet: Lions +1 -115

The Lions have been playing good football over the past month. They are 3-1 in their past 4 games, including 2 road victories, and a 3-point loss against the Buffalo Bills on Thanksgiving. The Lions kept that game a lot closer than expected. Detroit has a few extra days rest, and Jacksonville could be in a let-down spot after an emotional come from behind win against Baltimore where they converted a 2-point attempt to go ahead by 1 with 14 seconds left. I’ll take the better rested home team getting a point. 

–BH

NEW YORK JETS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Best Bet: Jets +7.5 -260

The Jets defense is legit while the Minnesota defense is not legit at all. Kirk Cousins should stumble enough for the new Jets leader at QB Mike White to win or at least keep them within 1 score. 

–SI

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS at NEW YORK GIANTS

Best Bet: Commanders ML -125

Here we have two teams trending in opposite directions. The Commanders have won 3 straight and 6 of their last 7. The Giants on the other hand have dropped their past 2 games and 3 of their past 4. Regardless, this should still be a close game, and many times in games like that special teams play a large role. Washington has a significant edge here with the #2 special teams DVOA at 4.2%, while New York sits at -0.8% which is 16th in the league. I’ll back the hotter team in this divisional matchup. 

–BH

TENNESSEE TITANS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Best Bet: Titans +10.5 -260

I’m sure there will be lots of hype on the Eagles sideline as Jordan Davis on the DL is healthy and there is an AJ Brown revenge game storyline. The Titans are entering playoff territory where head coach Mike Vrabel does his best work so I highly doubt they get blown out. 

–SI

DENVER BRONCOS at BALTIMORE RAVENS

Best Bet: Broncos +8.5 -110

This season has been abysmal for the Broncos, and it hit a low point last week when they lost by 13 to the Panthers. However, I’m going to buy low with Denver here. As bad as this season has gone, the Broncos still have a Top 10 DVOA defense. On top of that, they have only suffered 2 losses by 9 points or greater. I’ll take the points and hope the defense can keep things from getting out of hand. 

–BH

CLEVELAND BROWNS at HOUSTON TEXANS

Best Bet: Browns ML -335

Watson makes his Cleveland debut in this game and will seek revenge against his former team in his first week off suspension. Even if Watson forgot how to throw the ball, the Texans have the worst rushing defense which should lead to lots of yams for Chubb and Hunt. 

–SI

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at LOS ANGELES RAMS

Best Bet: Geno Smith 225+ passing yards -250

Injuries have decimated the Rams lineup as the losses stack up while Geno has been soaring with this new-found Seahawks squad. I doubt Jalen Ramsey himself can stop this surging offense and I doubt the Rams busted offense will do much so the Rams defense should be on the field for the majority of this game. 

–SI

MIAMI DOLPHINS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Best Bet: Dolphins +4 -110

This line is just too many points. Aside from the fact that the Niners have injury concerns, and that Miami has yet to lose a game that Tua was able to finish, these teams are neck and neck in total DVOA. San Francisco sits at 7th (16.6%) and Miami at 8th (14.8%). It’s difficult to win road games in the NFL, but with the line being over the key number of 3, the Dolphins seem to be the logical choice here. 

–BH

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at CINCINNATI BENGALS

Best Bet: Chiefs +4.5 -260

Chiefs with + spread in any contest is a win to me but especially with the less explosive Bengals this season from last year. The defense may win out and it could be a sloppy game, but either way I doubt Joe Burrow crushes the Chiefs by a touchdown or more. 

–SI

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS at LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

Best Bet: Raiders Team Total Over 23.5 -160

This season has been a massive disappointment for the Raiders, but they will have a chance to get a big divisional win on Sunday and put a dent into their rival’s playoff hopes. They have a favorable matchup with their run game this week, as the Chargers have one of the worst run defenses in the league. I expect Josh Jacobs to gash the Chargers on the ground early, which should open things up for Derek Carr and the Raiders’ aerial attack in the 2nd half. 

–BH

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at DALLAS COWBOYS

Best Bet: Cowboys -3.5 -290

Juice it to -6.5 if you want but the Cowboys “should” roll through here with a Parsons sack and Diggs interception. At home too, this Cowboys squad is on the opposite end of the Colts who are falling apart game by game. 

–SI

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Best Bet: Over 40.5 -105

I’m going to go against the recent trends here and take the over. Each team has cashed only 1 over in their past 5 games, but I think that trend changes on Monday Night Football. The Saints injury report is littered with defenders, most of whom are questionable. But even if they do play, this is a defense that won’t be close to 100%. On the flip side, Tampa Bay has one of the better defenses in football. However, after getting shutout for the first time since 2001, I think this Saints offense will come out wanting to push the ball downfield early in this game to avoid back-to-back goose eggs. I’m not exactly “comfortable” with this pick, but I believe scoring has been the main topic of discussion for both team’s preparations for this game. 

–BH