2021 NFL Week 7 Spread Predictions
Honestly, screw the Cleveland Browns. I have no clue why I believed in that team to beat the Cardinals at home in Week 6, and Arizona was WITHOUT THEIR HEAD COACH! The same goes for Detroit who I thought might rally to get their first win but they just looked like a defeated football team.
With a lot of solid games this week, I feel as if Vegas has some spreads at the perfect number. I don’t like how the Rams are a -15 against Detroit but am I going to bet on those bums again? No thank you. I also don’t know about Houston being +17.5 against Arizona. That spread seems so high that it’s almost inviting you to take the Texans, but they just got their asses handed to them by a struggling Colts team by 28.
Seeing all of those big spreads is exciting but also too inviting. I’m taking it easy on this “Byepacolypse” and only choosing my two favorite games. However these games are going to be heavy smash plays, and I would put 2-3 units down on these winners!
Philadelphia Eagles 2-4 @ Las Vegas Raiders 4-2 (-3)
Oh boy did the Eagles look bad on Thursday night against the Buccaneers. They opened up with a touchdown drive, and everyone was curious if this team was legit. Yet, that touchdown drive was largely aided by a 45-yard pass interference call that placed the ball at the five-yard line. Then their next seven drives were 6 punts and an interception, while the Bucs were pouring it on the defense and the score was 28-7. Now, I’m not saying the Bucs played light defense, but it looked like quarters coverage for the whole 4th quarter. Also watching those tackles get beat every single snap was painful to watch. I really don’t want to place all of the blame on the tackles, because Hurts did nothing to change the snap cadence. Barret had the timing down and that diminished Jalen’s already bad decision making. Hurts didn’t look good to me, and I think it’s clear as to why the Eagles were in on Watson to start the season. This defense has a solid cornerback duo with Slay/Nelson, but they can only cover their targets for so long. This is still the 5th ranked defense in passing yards, but that’s the only bright spot. They are bottom ten in almost every other aspect defensively and I really didn’t see anything Thursday to inspire a change.
Las Vegas rallied last week and won a very crucial divisional game against Denver. This team set aside all of the distractions and proved that their success early on this year wasn’t just because of Gruden. Carr had his 3rd 300+ yard passing game, and his best game according to quarterback rating (134.4 QBR). Carr and the Raiders have helped this team to a 10th ranked offense (385.2 YPG), and yes their success is solely on the shoulders of Carr. The team is ranked 30th in rushing (79.8 RY/G) and it doesn’t even look like they are trying to make it work. The defense is middle of the pack in a lot of statistical categories, but one thing they are good at is getting to the QB. They got to Teddy B five times last week, and they rank 6th on the year as a team in sacks. Crosby is rated as one the highest edge rushers by PFF, and I’m expecting him to feast on Sunday.
With that said, I expect these Vegas edge rushers to really set the tone this week. If last week was any hint as to how to beat this Eagles offense, it starts on the D-Line. Essentially Hurts has a lot of trouble reading the defense, and he relies on rushing the ball anytime he feels uncomfortable in the pocket. I expect him to try and run the ball 10 times on Sunday because of those dominant edge rushers in Oakland. My favorite matchup will be those solid corners in Philly versus the pass catching options in Vegas. I do think Carr and Waller will be eating up the middle of the field, with Carr having himself another 300-yard game. The Raiders are hungry to dispel the negativity Gruden left on this team. The team will once again rally around the captains and their new intern Coach and win this game, and cover the -3.
Indianapolis Colts 2-4 @ San Francisco 49ers 2-3 (-4.5)
The Colts are a team that I may have too much belief in. Carson Wentz has been a solid option at the quarterback position, and almost mistake free on the year. Wentz has the fewest interceptions for any regular season starter with just one pick on the year. His 9 touchdowns are tied with Lamar Jackson, and his 1545 passing yards are more than Joe Burrow. Johnathan Taylor ranks 5th in rush yards this year, and his 8 rushing touchdowns are third most by any other running back. So why is this team so bad, record wise? Well, Week 1 was marred by training camp injuries to some of their biggest names, so chemistry was an issue. Plus it’s extremely difficult to go into Seattle and win. Then, you had Wentz go down late in a close game against the Rams, the offense got nothing going against the Titans, and they won 2/3 games since. Honestly, it should be 3/3 if it wasn’t for a complete collapse defensively against the Ravens on Monday night. When I look at the Colts, this is a team that is still trying to figure itself out, and they might just be better than their losing record leads you to believe.
San Francisco has also faced a little bit of a gauntlet, schedule-wise, here as of late. After a 2-0 start with wins against the lowly Lions and Eagles, they found themselves on an 0-3 skid going into the bye week with losses to Green Bay, Seattle and Arizona. We also got to see the Trey Lance experiment against Arizona and I think it’s clear that Jimmy G is their best option to win. Lance wasn’t accurate, and you can tell his first instinct was to tuck the ball and run. Where as Jimmy has a natural ability to look downfield and use the weapons around him. The best weapon on the team, George Kittle, has been out and will be out for at least a couple more weeks with a calf injury. So that means someone had to step up and Deebo Samuel has done just that. On a per game basis, Deebo ranks 2nd in the NFL in receiving yards (109.6 RY/G). San Francisco has been a little inconsistent defensively, but have still maintained a 6th ranking in total yards allowed. The pass rushers need to play better, though. With the talent they have on the defensive line, they shouldn’t be 15th in sacks. Bosa is trying his best, but the production from Ford and Armstead will need to be better. Especially if they have any hopes of containing Taylor on Sunday night.
Both of these teams are on the same path. Currently stuck in the middle of being talented, yet under performing and losing games. Especially San Francisco, who is in arguably the toughest division in football. They can’t afford to lose any more games. The NFC is looking extremely competitive, and I find it hard to see a team with 6-7 losses making the playoffs. Sadly I don’t think this team will be able to piece it together this year. The Colts biggest asset is their offensive line and I think they will over power San Frans’ defensive line. Wentz will utilize that time and do enough to actually put this team in a position to win. JTT will have another 100-yard performance and continue his dominant play style as well. The Colts are pissed about how their last prime time showing and I imagine them coming out and winning this game, and also covering the +4.5.
