NFL Week 13 Predictions

So what’s a unit? You hear this term in betting, but some people never really cover what the term actually means. Simply put, a unit is how much you bet. Some say you should only be betting 1% of your worth due to gambling being so addictive, so we need to remember to not get ourselves too “in the hole” per-say. Gambling responsibly is tough, but it’s most likely the best way for anyone to make a profit in a short period of time. On the past games I’ve discussed, if you bet 100, you turned that into 1100 bucks. Some have been bad beats, while others have been pretty lucky. Regardless, here we are churning out winners each and every week, with three more plays I feel pretty confident in. Lets crack that bookie some more!

Cleveland Browns 5-4 @ New England Patriots 5-4 (-1.5)

The Cleveland Browns comes in as an underdog after embarrassing what was regarded to be the best team in their division just a couple weeks ago. Should the fans of Cleveland be concerned for the future now that Odell Beckham Jr is gone? This team was just 14-15 when Odell played, yet they somehow managed an 8-4 record without him. We have also seen Baker’s stats increase exponentially without Odell as well. His passer rating goes from 84.8 to 96.4 without Odell. His TD/Int ratio with Odell is 42/29 but without him it’s 41/17. Yards per game are right around the same, but why could one guy cause such a dramatic change, especially someone with the talent of OBJ? Well, it was reported that the Browns run a “Rhythm style offense.” That means you need to be in your designated spot in order to get the ball. Where as, in the past, Odell relies on talent and football IQ in order to overmatch his man-coverage or even find the endzone. Something to consider is that this team is a run-first offense. When critiquing OBJ, one thing is for certain – Odell is not a good run blocking wide receiver. So his lack of ability to fit into the offensive scheme has made him a liability on the field, as well as a dark cloud on the mental aspect of everyone on the offensive side of the ball. We should see Baker be more comfortable behind center, alongside an increase in stats similar to what seen at Cincinnati.

Is this Patriots team actually legit? I mean, offensively they are 10th in the league in points per game (25.6). Yet, they are also ranked just 19th in yards per game (345.6). Mac Jones has made strides to look like the best QB in this year’s draft class, while he also has shown signs of being a rookie. The 10/8 TD/Int ratio is ok, but you want to see him protecting the ball a little bit better. He has led this team to a middle standings in passing yards per game. Hell, they actually rank behind the Jets in passing yards per game. The Patriots, though, are not winning games because of their lack-luster offense, but instead its defense. They are 4th in opponents points per game (18.9) and 9th in opponents yards per game (340.3). This team is also 4th in takeaways a game (1.8) with an ability to always take away the opponents best option each game.

So with that, do we think Baker is able to win a big game for the Browns? This is me assuming that the Patriots will stack the box, cover the slant route, and hope they don’t give up a big play over the top. We’re also going to see the Browns possibly play without Nick Chubb, as he has come down with Covid. Thankfully, for the Browns, he is vaccinated and has tested positive early enough in the week to where he might be able to play Sunday. I already think this line is a little low for the Browns, but if we hear that Chubb is out, I’d expect the line to move a point, to even a point in a half in favor of the Patriots. The substitute in Johnson is no slouch and he balled the hell out in his only start this year against Denver, who just so happens to be a top 5 rush defense. Don’t be swayed by the Chubb news, and look at Johnson as a fresh set of legs that’ll really help carry this offense to where it normally likes to be. Browns to cover the +1.5 and give me them to win.

Minnesota Vikings 3-5 @ Los Angelas Chargers 5-3 (-2.5)

Are the Vikings still the worst-best team in the NFL? After that embarrassing loss at home to a Dak-less Cowboys, one may begin to think they’re leaning more towards the bottom tier of teams. They followed that up with a second half collapse against Baltimore, after allowing them to score on all of their second half drives, losing in another OT game. Also, looking into this team, you see that they can contend with good teams, but seem to always fall short. Their three wins came against a winless Lions team, a fumbling Panthers squad, and one quality win against the Seahawks. They also, sadly, have their best player dealing with some off-the-field issues. Who knows where Dalvin’s head is at after these serious accusations, too. We also are hearing some chatter that the Vikings might have a head coach on the hot seat. I wonder how this team will respond with all of this negative news surrounding them.

So we have all these questions about whether or not Minnesota is the worst-best team in the NFL, but I feel like LA is the complete opposite. After they had this electric win over Cleveland, they dropped an embarrassing game to Baltimore, lost a shocking game to NE, and then needed OT to beat a bad Philadelphia squad. So who is this team? We know offensively they have all of the talent in the world: Herbert is garnering all of the attention of competing with some of the great “young QBs” in the league. Ekkler and Allen are some of the most reliable options at their own positions and their offensive line has also done well keeping Herbert upright. Yet, defensively, they are just dropping the ball. Joey Bosa is off to his worst season of his career and maybe that’s why the Chargers are bottom 5 in sacks per game as we enter into the halfway point of this NFL regular season.

They are the worst in the league at defending the run, allowing 161.8 rushing yards per game. They’re also 3rd in the league at passing yards allowed, but that may due to the ease in which they run the ball. Now, knowing how bad the Chargers are at running the ball, how many yards will Dalvin Cook have? I mean, he is set up to have one of his best games of the year you would think. Angry at what is going on outside of football, I see a world where they hand the ball off 25-30 times. The Vikings will want to come out and try to solidify the run early. The best way the Chargers can stop the run, though, is to score, forcing the Vikings to pass the ball. I believe that’ll take them outside of their game plan. This seems to be opposite of what I’m seeing nationally, but I’m a fool for this Chargers team. Give me the Chargers to cover the 2.5. 

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